eRisk Group has developed two base models to evaluate market developments and asses the value of certain assets of portfolios of assets. More detailed information can be found in two documents which can be downloaded.
The Power Price Generator (PPSGen) is a transparent model of the electricity generation in the Benelux, Germany, France, and the UK. PPSGen determines marketprices per hour, taking into account the developments regarding renewable energy (growth), demand, new generation facilities as well as mothballing, seasonal must run obligations, cross border capacities, fuel and CO2 prices, decentralised production by industrials for example, and technical specifications of power plants.
Demand for electricity and supply of renewable energy (especially wind and solar PV) is based on actual hourly data, taking weather conditions for those hours into account. For this purpose historical years are applied and scaled to the requested forecast year.
PPSGen is modelled in Matlab, Excel, and VBA.
PPSGen is different from other models as its calculation times are extremely short (a few minutes per year) and complete transparency is provided regarding all assumptions and inputs.
PPSGen is continuously updated to reflect any changes in new built plans, mothballing of regulations which have apotential impact on the merit order.
The second model is a DCF model (DCFGen). We provide a detailed overview of the output of the model. A number of sensitivity analyses with respect to the main parameters is included. These parameters typically are: price scenarios, market volatility, OPEX, and CAPEX. Other parameters can easily be included. The standard model allows for a comparison between different plant configurations. Herewith, our approach provides useful information for business developers and portfolio, asset, and risk managers alike.